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Seeing “Drive,” “Take Shelter,” and even “Harry Potter 7.2” ignored while lesser films such as “War Horse,” “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” and yes, “The Help” get nominated was hard to swallow. Similarly, how breathtaking performances from Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan and Albert Brooks in “Drive,” Michael Shannon in “Take Shelter,” Elizabeth Olsen in “Martha Marcy May Marlene,” Kirsten Dunst in “Melancholia,” Charlize Theron and Patton Oswalt in “Young Adult” and Michael Fassbender in “Shame” could get no Academy love is beyond me. But, the show will still go on this Sunday, and I’ll still be watching!
Here’s how I think it will shake out:
Best Picture
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"The Help"
"Moneyball"
"War Horse"
"The Tree of Life"
Of the nominees, “The Tree of Life” would be my pick, but it has no chance as the film was much too polarizing. It will come down to a dogfight between “The Help” and “The Artist.” “The Help” just won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, which makes it a slight favorite for most, including my fellow film critics at The Other Paper. Still, I’m sticking to my guns and betting “The Artist” takes it.
Best Actor
Demian Bichir, "A Better Life"
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
Brad Pit was great in “Moneyball,” but his nomination this year should be for “The Tree of Life.” Clooney gave perhaps the best performance of his career in “The Descendants” and deserves to be the winner, but in the end I think Dujardin will snatch Oscar away with his charming, and nearly silent, turn in “The Artist.”
Best Actress
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"
Glenn Close has never won an Oscar, which is hard to believe. Her performance as a woman living life as a man in “Albert Nobbs” is deserving, but she’ll most likely still be winless after Sunday. Viola Davis, equally deserving for her role in “The Help,” just won the SAG award, and is the safe bet to win the Oscar as well.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
I’m glad to see Nolte getting a nomination for his great work in “Warrior,” a fine film nobody saw. Still, in the stone cold lock of the night, Plummer will nab the award he deserves for his touching performance as an elderly gentleman coming out of the closet in “Beginners.”
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
In this was decided by laughs per minute, McCarthy won be a shoo-in for her flat-out hilarious role in “Bridesmaids.” But, comedies are tough sledding for Oscar, and she’s a dark horse. Chastain was everywhere in 2011. She was not only solid in “The Help,” but stunning in “Take Shelter,” extraordinary in “The Tree of Life” and fine in “The Debt.” She gets my vote, but I’m thinking the Academy voters have Octavia Spencer edging out McTeer for the Oscar.
Best Director
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
All five directors deserve it for their great work on vastly different films. Malick would be my choice, followed by Scorsese, but I think “The Artist” has enough momentum to make a winner out of Hazanavicius.
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
JC Chandor, "Margin Call"
Asghar Farhadi, "A Separation"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, "Bridesmaids"
Again, five great nominees, and though it should probably go to “A Separation” (please see it when it hits Columbus next weekend), my guess is Woody Allen will get the call. His “Midnight in Paris ” was utterly delightful, and in my opinion (though longtime Allen fans will probably disagree) his most enjoyable film ever.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash, "The Descendants"
John Logan, "Hugo"
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, "The Ides of March"
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, "Moneyball"
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughn, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Another tough call as I loved them all. I’m betting on “The Descendants” to win this, as it should, by an eyelash, over “Moneyball.”
Best Animated Feature
"A Cat In Paris"
"Chico & Rita"
"Kung Fu Panda 2"
"Puss in Boots"
"Rango"
In a bit of a weak year for animated films (where’s “TinTin?”), “Rango” should and will win.
About the author: George Wolf is a movie reviewer and on-air personality for our sister stations Sunny 95 WSNY and Rewind 103.5/104.3 WNND in Columbus, Ohio.
