Busy Agenda Clouds Hopes For Immigration Reform

PHOENIX (Reuters) - Some U.S. Democrats see momentum building for an overhaul of immigration laws that would legalize millions of undocumented workers, but analysts say a crowded agenda and struggling economy may once again sink hopes for reform next year.

Representative Luis Gutierrez says he will introduce a comprehensive reform bill in the Democrat-controlled Congress in December, offering a path to citizenship for law abiding undocumented workers.

"It's my feeling that we just can't wait any longer for a bill that keeps our families together, protects our workers and allows a clear pathway to legalization for those who have earned it," the Illinois Democrat said.

Gutierrez was speaking in a conference call on Wednesday, which organizers said reached 60,000 participants gathered at house parties in 45 states.

Democratic officials in Washington, however, are skeptical there will be enough time or political will to tackle the issue next year although it could be on the agenda in 2011 or 2012 depending on the outcome of congressional elections next year.

Immigration is a divisive issue in the United States where some 12 million illegal immigrants live and work in the shadows and where Hispanics, the largest immigrant group, are an increasingly weighty voting bloc.

CHANGING CLIMATE?

President Barack Obama, who was backed overwhelmingly by Hispanics in his election last year, says he wants to see legislation by early next year. His predecessor, President George W. Bush, tried and failed to get reforms passed.

Obama supports the idea of offering citizenship to illegal immigrants in good standing while cracking down on employers who hire undocumented workers as well as hardening the porous border with Mexico.

Representative Nydia Velazquez, who chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and who also spoke in Wednesday's call, said she believed legislation would be passed before Congressional elections in November 2010.

Senior White House advisor David Axelrod told CNN on Sunday that Democrats and Republicans in Congress were working together to craft an immigration reform bill that could become law as early as next year.

That echoed a statement by Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, who said last week that factors like a big decline in illegal border crossings had altered the political climate, making an overhaul "attainable."

She said there were signs that more Americans want the broken immigration system fixed and there had been vocal support from law enforcement officials, clerics and leaders from business and labor.

LIMITED BANDWIDTH

A House Democratic leadership aide was less optimistic. "I think it is pretty unlikely. Our members had to take a lot of tough votes this year -- on healthcare and energy -- that they are getting beat up on."

The aide, who asked not to be identified, added: "My sense is that there isn't going to be much enthusiasm in the rank and file to take up another issue that is going to require more tough votes."

Analysts cautioned that the Congressional agenda was already packed with pending healthcare and climate legislation, as well as measures to tackle the sliding economy.

"Between focusing on the economy and other public policy priorities, it's hard to see Congress having the bandwidth to take on a big-ticket immigration reform as well," said Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

Analysts said lawmakers facing re-election next year may be reluctant to vote for a bill legalizing millions of illegal workers at a time when unemployment is above 10 percent, and businesses were struggling to emerge from a deep recession.

"There is zero appetite for this, particularly among Republicans, almost uniformly, and also among Democrats who are in marginal districts," said Steven Camarota, research director of the Center for Immigration Studies.

Ethan Siegal of the Washington Exchange, a private firm that tracks Congress and the White House for institutional investors, said: "I think the chance of major immigration reform next year are well under 50-50."